みんコレ！109と実際の得点の関係
みんコレ！の有用性の一つの指標として、実際の得点との相関について解析しました。
みんコレ！109の投票データを使った解析です。
集計可能だった4253人分のデータを使って解析しています。
相関係数は0.98 回帰式は、Ｙ＝1.04Ｘ-39.9（Ｘ＝みんコレ！、Ｙ＝実際の得点）でした。
極めて相関が強く、みんコレ！の一致率から、ある程度妥当に実際の得点を推定できると考えられます。
実際の得点の期待値は、理論上、みんコレ！の一致率よりやや低くなります。
一般問題（合格129点以上）に関して
みんコレ！109の一致率が139点以上の受験生は100％合格し、
（4253人中3918位まで（上位92.1％））
みんコレ！109の一致率が125点以下の受験生は合格率0％でした。
（4253人中4205位以下（下位1.1％））
臨床問題（合格405点以上）に関して
みんコレ！109の一致率が432点以上の受験生は100％合格し、
（4253人中4037位まで（上位94.9％））
みんコレ！109の一致率が393点以下の受験生は合格率0％でした。
（4253人中4211位以下（下位1.0％））
必修問題（合格160点以上）に関して
みんコレ！109の一致率が161点以上の受験生は100％合格し、
（4253人中4158位まで（上位97.8％））
みんコレ！109の一致率が158点以下の受験生は合格率0％でした。
（4253人中4189位以下（下位1.5％））
必修問題ではみんコレ！の的中率が極めて高いため、かなりの精度で得点を予想できると考えられます。
合計得点に関しては、以下の通りになっています。判定区分はみんコレ！独自基準です。
みんコレ！109の一致率が
ＡＡ判定：830点以上は100％合格（4253人中1907位まで（上位44.8％））
Ａ判定：760点以上830点未満は合格率96％以上（4253人中3848位まで（上位90.5％））
Ｂ判定：740点以上760点未満は合格率79％以上（4253人中4039位まで（上位95.0％））
Ｃ判定：730点以上740点未満は合格率79％未満（4253人4101中位まで（下位5.0％））
Ｄ判定：700点以上730点未満は合格率50％未満（4253人中4194位まで（下位4.6％））
Ｅ判定：700点未満は、合格率0％でした。（4253人中4195位以下（下位1.4％））
あくまで、昨年度のデータの解析になります。合格可能性推定の参考にしてください。
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