みんコレ!109と実際の得点の関係

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みんコレ!の有用性の一つの指標として、実際の得点との相関について解析しました。

みんコレ!109の投票データを使った解析です。

集計可能だった4253人分のデータを使って解析しています。

みんコレ!と得点の相関

相関係数は0.98 回帰式は、Y=1.04X-39.9(X=みんコレ!、Y=実際の得点)でした。

極めて相関が強く、みんコレ!の一致率から、ある程度妥当に実際の得点を推定できると考えられます。

実際の得点の期待値は、理論上、みんコレ!の一致率よりやや低くなります。

スライド2

一般問題(合格129点以上)に関して

みんコレ!109の一致率が139点以上の受験生は100%合格し、

(4253人中3918位まで(上位92.1%))

みんコレ!109の一致率が125点以下の受験生は合格率0%でした。

(4253人中4205位以下(下位1.1%))

スライド3

臨床問題(合格405点以上)に関して

みんコレ!109の一致率が432点以上の受験生は100%合格し、

(4253人中4037位まで(上位94.9%))

みんコレ!109の一致率が393点以下の受験生は合格率0%でした。

(4253人中4211位以下(下位1.0%))

スライド4

必修問題(合格160点以上)に関して

みんコレ!109の一致率が161点以上の受験生は100%合格し、

(4253人中4158位まで(上位97.8%))

みんコレ!109の一致率が158点以下の受験生は合格率0%でした。

(4253人中4189位以下(下位1.5%))

必修問題ではみんコレ!の的中率が極めて高いため、かなりの精度で得点を予想できると考えられます。

スライド5

合計得点に関しては、以下の通りになっています。判定区分はみんコレ!独自基準です。

みんコレ!109の一致率が

AA判定:830点以上は100%合格(4253人中1907位まで(上位44.8%))

A判定:760点以上830点未満は合格率96%以上(4253人中3848位まで(上位90.5%))

B判定:740点以上760点未満は合格率79%以上(4253人中4039位まで(上位95.0%))

C判定:730点以上740点未満は合格率79%未満(4253人4101中位まで(下位5.0%))

D判定:700点以上730点未満は合格率50%未満(4253人中4194位まで(下位4.6%))

E判定:700点未満は、合格率0%でした。(4253人中4195位以下(下位1.4%))

スライド1

あくまで、昨年度のデータの解析になります。合格可能性推定の参考にしてください。

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